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What are the odds?

By Bridget Osborne

What are the odds? 5 June 2017

Ladbrokes have reported that Brentford & Isleworth is the most bet on constituency in the UK general election. They have Conservative candidate Mary MacLeod as 4/7 to regain the seat with Ruth Cadbury priced at 5/4 and Lib Dem Joe Bourke 100/1 to win.

Betting organisations may be more likely to be right than pollsters. There is after all serious money riding on their predictions, but even so there are some differences between their predictions. To see the full spread check out Oddschecker.

As we go into election week, Paddy Power is fairly typical, rating Brentford & Isleworth as: Conservatives 4/6, Labour evens, Lib Dems 100 – 1. In Ealing Central & Acton their odds are: Labour 8/13, Conservatives 6/5 and the Lib Dems 66/1.

According to Paul Krishnamurty, who runs the Political Gambler website: “For all Labour’s progress, they are still highly unlikely to win more seats than, or even prevent the Conservatives winning a majority. Corbyn still has a mountain to climb. To become PM, he needs a polling and geographical miracle. To gain seats rather than lose them, as every indicator suggests Labour will, in the wake of UKIP’s demise”.